The International Crisis Group and several prominent figures have urged the launch of a new initiative similar to the Black Sea Grain Agreement established in 2022, aimed at facilitating the passage of food, fertilizers, and intermediary materials through the Strait of Hormuz. These calls come at a time when the conflict in the Middle East is escalating, threatening global food security and exacerbating food crises in poorer nations.
Concerns have grown following a series of attacks by Iran on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, in response to the U.S.-Israeli military campaign that began on February 28. These attacks have led to a sharp decline in maritime traffic through the strait, affecting about one-third of global fertilizer trade and negatively impacting energy supplies.
Details of the Initiative
The report indicates that the repercussions of the conflict will be felt worldwide, but will particularly impact small farmers in poorer countries, where fertilizers constitute a significant portion of production costs. This situation may force some farmers to reduce their cultivated areas, increasing food scarcity in regions like Sudan, which are already facing crises.
The report emphasizes that the optimal solution to prevent the crisis from worsening lies in halting the war or reaching a ceasefire agreement. However, current indicators do not suggest optimism, highlighting the need for practical efforts to mitigate the humanitarian impacts of the conflict, beyond what diplomacy alone can achieve.
Background & Context
The Black Sea Grain Agreement of 2022, mediated by the United Nations and Turkey, serves as a viable model for the Strait of Hormuz. This agreement allowed for the shipment of wheat and fertilizers from Ukrainian ports despite the ongoing war, contributing to the influx of millions of tons of wheat into markets and lowering prices of essential food items.
The International Crisis Group seeks to support a similar approach in the Gulf, where the United Nations has announced the formation of a task force to address disruptions in maritime trade through the strait. This team aims to propose an operational mechanism that allows for the passage of fertilizer shipments and humanitarian aid.
Impact & Consequences
The task force should, in collaboration with the new UN Secretary-General's envoy for Middle Eastern conflict issues, gather experts in diplomatic, maritime, and humanitarian fields to formulate the "Hormuz Crossing" initiative. This initiative will focus on developing a mechanism that enables the unobstructed flow of fertilizers and intermediary materials such as sulfur, ammonia, and food, for both exports and imports.
Forecasts suggest that this initiative could serve the interests of both Iran and the United States, as it enhances Iranian food security while clarifying that Tehran's control over the strait targets only the warring parties, thereby supporting farmers and consumers and alleviating the conflict's costs on the rest of the world.
Regional Significance
As of March 30, 2026, a group of prominent international figures has signed on to the initiative, reflecting broad support for the idea of facilitating the passage of food and fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz. Early warning analyst Chris Newton from the International Crisis Group confirmed that all parties have strong reasons to desire such an initiative.
In statements to Al Jazeera Net, Newton added that parties must work to avoid their own food crises while considering the global food crisis, without sacrificing their overall goals. Such initiatives have succeeded in past conflicts, underscoring the necessity for the United Nations to play a leading role in this context.
Regarding the implementation mechanism of the initiative, Newton pointed to the need to negotiate the details of the operational framework, coordination structures, shipping routes, and required quantities. He emphasized that the world is in urgent need of this initiative to facilitate the passage of fertilizers and their derivatives, noting that it represents one of the few realistic ways to achieve this goal if the war does not end.