International movements are intensifying to redraw the political settlement path in Libya, where internal positions vary between those who see these initiatives as an opportunity to break the years-long stalemate and those who warn against entrenching a reality of power-sharing outside national frameworks. Amid this divergence, opponents of foreign solutions find themselves in a dilemma due to their inability to formulate a national alternative.
This divergence comes at a time when the UN mission's path has not contributed to breaking the stalemate since the fall of the late President Muammar Gaddafi's regime in 2011. The High Council of State hastily rejected the initiative attributed to Masad Boulus, an advisor to the US president, which stipulates that Saddam Haftar, the deputy commander of the National Army, would head a new presidential council, replacing Mohamed Menfi, while retaining Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh as head of the unified government.
Details of the Event
Saad Ben Sharada, a member of the High Council of State, held the House of Representatives and the State Council responsible for the worsening political scene, indicating that they had not completed what was required of them in the first phase of the roadmap announced six months ago by the UN envoy to Libya, Hanna Titiyeh. This roadmap pertains to amending electoral laws and completing the formation of the National Election Commission.
In his statements, Ben Sharada expressed his conviction that the current movements, whether from the mission or from Washington, aim to reduce the role of the councils in favor of a direct consensus among the active forces. Despite renewing his reservations about foreign initiatives, he acknowledged that the Libyan citizen suffers from the repercussions of division and wishes to end it, given the rampant corruption and the fragility of the security situation.
Context and Background
Libya is experiencing a political division represented by the existence of two competing governments; the first is the interim government led by Dbeibeh in Tripoli, and the second is mandated by the parliament and led by Osama Hamad, managing the eastern region and supported by the National Army commander Khalifa Haftar. This division reflects a state of political and economic instability, complicating efforts for a solution.
In a related context, former Minister of State for Economic Affairs, Salama Al-Ghweil, pointed out that US movements aim to reduce the random spending that the two competing governments were exercising from oil revenues, which could lead the country towards bankruptcy. He also highlighted the importance of the "Flintlock 2026" exercise conducted by Africom in Sirte, which brings together forces from eastern and western Libya.
Consequences and Impact
Attention is turning to how these foreign initiatives will affect the Libyan political scene. Member of the House of Representatives, Issam Al-Jihani, acknowledged that Washington has made tangible steps compared to the UN mission, indicating that those opposed to foreign initiatives are now in a real predicament. He considered that Washington is pushing for the integration of the two governments into a unified body instead of forming a new government that might spark controversy over the names of its members.
On the other hand, political analyst Mohamed Mahfoud anticipated that Washington would struggle in the process of forming a new executive authority, indicating that the initiative attributed to Boulus is based on power-sharing without a timeline or guarantees for elections. These dynamics reflect a state of uncertainty regarding Libya's political future.
Impact on the Arab Region
The Libyan crisis is part of a broader scene of political tensions in the Arab region. The power struggle in Libya could affect the stability of neighboring countries and reflects larger challenges faced by Arab states in achieving political consensus. Furthermore, the failure to find radical solutions to the Libyan crisis could lead to the spread of chaos and instability in the region.
In conclusion, the situation in Libya remains complex, with international and local interests intertwining, making it difficult to reach a comprehensive solution. It requires a concerted effort from both local and international actors to achieve stability and unify institutions, ensuring a better future for the Libyan people.