Less than 24 hours after the US-Iran ceasefire was announced, cracks began to appear, particularly following Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz again.
US media has approached the ceasefire with caution, suggesting it may have been rushed and did not take into account numerous unresolved issues, casting doubt on the achievement of war objectives.
Details of the Incident
The violent Israeli escalation in Lebanon threatens the stability of the ceasefire, with Iran insisting that the ceasefire includes Lebanon, a claim denied by Washington. In this context, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated, "The conditions for the ceasefire were clear, and the United States must choose: either a ceasefire or continue the war through Israel."
On the other hand, US Vice President J.D. Vance confirmed that Iran's insistence that the plan includes Lebanon is a "misunderstanding," emphasizing that Washington made no promises regarding that. He explained that allowing negotiations to collapse over the inclusion of Lebanon would be "foolish," but the choice remains with the Iranians.
Context and Background
These tensions come after what has been described as the "largest Israeli attack" on Lebanon, resulting in over 1,400 casualties, targeting several Lebanese cities and towns. Iran announced that passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire would only be possible with prior coordination with its armed forces, but the Israeli attacks and Washington's refusal to discuss have pushed Tehran back towards closing this vital corridor.
Official statements regarding the closure of the strait have been conflicting, with White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt denying that such a closure occurred. However, navigation monitoring companies confirmed that only three ships crossed on Wednesday, while Iran had reported it would allow the passage of 12 ships daily during the ceasefire.
Consequences and Impact
Washington and Tehran are competing for control over the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran seeking to impose a toll of one dollar per barrel of oil, to be paid in digital currencies. In this context, Trump indicated he is considering the idea of creating a "joint project" with Tehran to manage the strait cooperatively.
Despite the official ceasefire, Iran attacked oil facilities and power stations in several Gulf countries, raising concerns about the potential for escalation. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth interpreted these attacks as a result of the collapse of Iranian command systems due to intensive US bombing.
Impact on the Arab Region
Estimates from the International Atomic Energy Agency indicate that Iran possesses approximately 970 pounds (440 kg) of highly enriched uranium as of June 2025, a quantity sufficient to produce several nuclear bombs. However, there are no official indications from Tehran regarding its willingness to surrender its stockpile of enriched uranium or abandon its nuclear program, complicating negotiations further.
It is expected that both parties will resolve many of these outstanding issues in Islamabad, which will clarify whether the ceasefire is a means to sustainable peace or merely a short respite before greater escalation.