The war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran has entered its second month, intertwining military calculations with economic risks and regional balances, with no signs of a near end. A report from the French magazine "Le Nouvel Observateur" sheds light on five pivotal questions to understand the trajectory of this conflict.
The war, dubbed "Epic Fury," began on February 28, 2026, resulting in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the initial strikes, while the fate of his son and successor Mohammad Khamenei remains uncertain. Since then, the conflict has expanded to include multiple regional dimensions, affecting global security, energy, and the economy.
Duration of the War
The first question pertains to the duration of the war, as American statements, particularly from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggest the possibility of achieving objectives within weeks without ground intervention, while keeping the door to negotiations open despite Tehran's refusal to engage in dialogue. This reflects ambiguity in the horizon of the conflict between military resolution and political settlement.
On the other hand, American envoy Steve Witkoff expressed hope for talks with Iran this week, stating, "Meetings will be held this week, and we truly hope for that." However, Tehran has repeatedly confirmed that it does not intend to negotiate with the United States, complicating the situation further.
Expansion of the Conflict
The second question concerns the widening scope of the war, as the confrontation has surpassed the borders of Iran and Israel to include other regional parties. The Houthis have entered the conflict, targeting what they describe as sensitive sites within Israel. Additionally, several facilities in Gulf countries, such as the port of Salalah in Oman and Kuwait International Airport, have been attacked, signaling the potential for an open regional confrontation.
Background & Context
The nature of the targets has accelerated to include civilian infrastructure, particularly in the energy and water desalination sectors. Both sides have exchanged threats to strike vital facilities, with American President Donald Trump threatening to target electrical facilities, while Iran has threatened to strike energy and technology facilities in the region. This shift to a more dangerous phase reflects an unprecedented escalation in the conflict.
Economically, the war has caused a shock in energy markets, with oil prices soaring sharply amid fears of a repeat of the 1973 crisis. Although major economies are less dependent on oil today compared to the 1970s, the repercussions remain strong, with rising living costs and some countries taking support measures to mitigate the impact.
Impact & Consequences
In Lebanon, the situation is worsening following Hezbollah's involvement in the fighting in support of Iran, leading to extensive military escalation with Israel, particularly in the south, the Bekaa Valley, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. The clashes have resulted in hundreds of deaths and mass displacement, making the Lebanese arena one of the most dangerous fronts of escalation.
Israel continues to bombard Lebanon with all types of weapons, attempting to penetrate southern Lebanon to expand a buffer zone along its borders. Meanwhile, Hezbollah asserts that its forces are countering these attacks and continues to launch rockets into Israeli territory. According to the latest official statistics, the war has resulted in the deaths of 1,142 people and the displacement of over one million in Lebanon.
Regional Significance
Overall, the report indicates that the war has entered an open phase of attrition, where military calculations intertwine with economic risks and regional balances, with no clear indicators of a near end. The continuation of this conflict could lead to radical changes in regional balances and complicate situations in the Middle East.
In conclusion, the scene in the Middle East remains complex, with increasing risks and complicated situations, necessitating close monitoring by the international community.