Food prices in Lebanon have surged dramatically since the beginning of the regional war, transforming these increases from mere economic reflections into a genuine living crisis that directly impacts Lebanese families. This wave of inflation encompasses most goods, ranging from essential food items to local products, reflecting an interplay between global price hikes and accelerated domestic pricing.
Rana, an employee living in Beirut, states that prices have risen significantly, with some food items experiencing increases between 30 and 50 percent in a short period. For instance, a pack of pasta that used to sell for one or two dollars now costs around five dollars. Additionally, the price of bread has risen to 0.8 dollars from the oven, and it can reach one dollar in stores.
Details of the Price Surge
The increases are not limited to imported goods; local products have also been affected, complicating the situation further. Canned goods, such as beans and chickpeas, have seen notable price increases, while prices for pasta and other basic items have risen significantly. Even vegetables, which are expected to be less affected by external factors, have experienced notable price hikes due to reduced transportation from wholesale markets in the south and Bekaa Valley, leading to decreased supply in the capital and rising prices.
This expansion of inflation raises questions about whether the markets are moving solely under cost pressure or if there is a preemptive price increase that exceeds actual costs. Economist Walid Abu Suleiman warns that the rising costs of shipping and energy globally directly impact prices in Lebanon, as most food commodities are imported, making the local market highly susceptible.
Abu Suleiman states, "The cost of shipping a container has risen from about one thousand to fifteen hundred dollars, alongside increases in insurance premiums and fuel prices." He notes that these increases accumulate throughout the entire supply chain and will inevitably reflect on consumers.
Background & Context
In turn, Fadi Abu Shakra, a representative of fuel distributors in Lebanon, confirmed that the price increases are directly linked to global developments and tensions in vital corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz. He pointed out that any rise in oil prices automatically reflects on fuel prices, and consequently on the cost of goods and services.
It is noted that prices have risen by about 40 to 45 percent within a month, with the price of a gasoline canister climbing from around 17 dollars to nearly 26 dollars. This increase has direct repercussions on various sectors, and its effects are already beginning to show on food prices.
Despite these increases, Hani Bahsali, head of the Food Importers Syndicate in Lebanon, indicates that the situation does not suggest a shortage of supplies, as there are no serious indicators of food shortages. He affirms that supply chains remain intact, and import activity continues despite the complex circumstances.
Impact & Consequences
Bahsali clarifies that the rise in global oil prices directly impacts shipping and insurance costs, which could lead to a gradual increase in prices over the coming weeks. He points out that the actual impact of these increases has not fully manifested yet, as the goods currently arriving were shipped before the cost hikes.
Regarding stock levels, Bahsali explains that the general inventory ranges between two to three months, which is the normal rate for the import cycle. He notes that dry goods such as rice and legumes are available for longer periods, while fresh goods like poultry and meat may be affected more quickly.
Regional Significance
This reality means that Lebanese markets are currently not suffering from a shortage of materials but are facing pricing imbalances and cost discrepancies. Bahsali emphasizes that rising energy prices do not necessarily mean a corresponding increase in food commodity prices, as the increase in energy costs, despite exceeding 40 percent, reflects only a limited percentage on the final price of goods.
He warns against exploiting crises, noting that the demands of war may sometimes impose price increases due to higher transportation costs or difficulties in accessing certain areas, but he stresses that this does not mean all traders are engaging in monopolistic practices or unregulated pricing.
The Lebanese markets appear to be facing a delicate equation: real global pressures raising costs, against domestic pricing that sometimes accelerates outside this framework. While consumers are facing an open wave of inflation, Bahsali confirms that Lebanon has prior experience in crisis management, which helps adapt to current conditions.
In conclusion, Bahsali calls for a realistic and calm approach, emphasizing that food commodities will not be cut off from the markets in the foreseeable future, despite the existing challenges.