In a scathing analysis, American writer Thomas Friedman criticized President Donald Trump, pointing out that his decision to wage war on Iran, in collaboration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stemmed from a mistaken belief that it would lead to a "quick and easy" change of the Iranian regime. Instead, this decision ignited a fire that is difficult to extinguish.
In his article for the New York Times, Friedman described Trump as a "volatile and unstable man," likening him to a child playing with matches in a room filled with gas, referring to the American military's intervention in a tense region.
Details of the Event
Friedman noted that the fundamental failure in Trump's strategy towards Iran lies in his underestimation of the resilience of the Iranian leadership, as he assumed that airstrikes would lead to the regime's collapse. Instead, the Iranian regime demonstrated flexible military capabilities, harming Israel and America's Arab allies, while also controlling the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy artery.
Under the weight of these events, Trump found himself in a "shameful" position, as his statements regarding the conflict were contradictory. At times, he claims to have settled the war, while at other times he admits to a lack of a clear strategy for opening the Strait of Hormuz, leaving him with limited options that boil down to threatening to destroy Iranian infrastructure.
Context and Background
Friedman attributes the political environment created by Trump, through appointing ministers based on personal loyalty rather than competence, as contributing to erratic decision-making. He also criticized the appointment of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, warning that the "prayer sessions" he led at the Pentagon have turned the geopolitical conflict into a religious war.
Friedman mentioned that Trump has transformed Iran from a "malignant problem" into a "highly malignant problem," noting that former President Barack Obama dealt with Iran by reaching a nuclear agreement in 2015, aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Impact and Consequences
Friedman clarified that Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018, without an alternative strategy, has complicated matters further. He considered Trump's current plan to end the war with Iran, consisting of 15 points, to be "ridiculously complex."
However, he pointed out that the solution lies in meeting Iran's demands by ensuring the regime's survival while simultaneously achieving what the United States and Israel want by preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. He emphasized that this requires Iran to relinquish its stockpile of high-enriched uranium, estimated at over 430 kilograms.
Impact on the Arab Region
Friedman predicted that this potential agreement could lead to the cessation of hostilities between the two sides and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international navigation, which would alleviate tensions in the region. However, he noted that this agreement would not solve all the problems in the region, but it would be an important step towards avoiding a comprehensive regional collapse.
In conclusion, Friedman considered that Trump would be "extremely lucky" if the Iranian regime accepted these terms, pointing out that statements about "regime change" are merely a way to save face to allow negotiations with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which is the real power managing the scene from behind the scenes.