Five years after the coup led against the elected government headed by Aung San Suu Kyi, General Min Aung Hlaing is expected to be elected as President of Myanmar by the new parliament, which convened for the first time since the coup. This meeting follows promises made by Hlaing at the beginning of the coup to restore civilian rule within a year, a goal that has not been achieved until long after a period of chaos and violence.
The new parliament, dominated by military loyalists, guarantees the military a quarter of the seats, while the military party, Union Solidarity and Development Party, won nearly 80% of the remaining seats in questionable elections. These results are seen more as a coronation than a genuine election, as actual power remains in the hands of the military.
Details of the Event
General Hlaing, who resigned from his position as commander of the armed forces to assume the presidency, appears to be planning to maintain his power by appointing allies to high positions. General Ye Win Oo, known for his harsh reputation, has been appointed to replace him in leading the armed forces. Hlaing has also established a new advisory council expected to wield significant authority over civil and military affairs.
Under these circumstances, young activists like Kyaw Win, who faced arrest and torture for participating in protests, feel that hope for change has faded. As he plans to seek work abroad, many citizens express their dissatisfaction with the current situation, as economic conditions have deteriorated significantly.
Background & Context
Historically, Myanmar has suffered from repeated military interventions, with the army seizing power multiple times since the country’s independence. The latest coup came after a landslide victory for the National League for Democracy in the November 2020 elections, which angered the military that viewed its authority as threatened. The use of deadly force against protesters led to the outbreak of civil war, resulting in thousands of deaths and millions displaced.
In the past five years, the military government has lost control over large parts of the country to armed resistance, exacerbating humanitarian and economic crises. Regional crises, such as the war in the Middle East, have further worsened the situation, with fuel prices rising significantly.
Impact & Consequences
The United Nations estimates that over 16 million people in Myanmar are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, while the number of displaced persons approaches 4 million. The economic situation in the country is worsening, with citizens suffering from rising prices and fuel shortages, impacting businesses and daily life.
Analysis indicates that the conflict in Myanmar is unlikely to change radically with Hlaing assuming the presidency, as the use of force against civilians in resistance-controlled areas is expected to continue. The new government, which lacks legitimacy in the eyes of many, will face significant challenges in asserting its authority.
Regional Significance
The situation in Myanmar is significant for the Arab region, highlighting the need for political and economic stability in countries facing crises. The humanitarian crises in Myanmar may also affect refugee flows to neighboring countries, necessitating a coordinated international response.
In conclusion, the road to stability in Myanmar still appears long and difficult, as the military remains entrenched in its positions, leaving the people in a state of anxiety and tension.