By the year 2075, Spain may face a drastically different reality if borders remain closed to migrants. According to a report from the National Office for Forecasting and Strategy, a 30% reduction in immigration flows could lead to a significant decline in population, adversely affecting the economy and public services.
The report, recently presented, indicates that Spain will encounter serious demographic and economic challenges if these trends persist. If the situation remains unchanged, Spain's population is expected to reach 55 million by 2075; however, if immigration is curtailed, this number could drop to 40 million, which is approximately 10 million fewer than the current population.
Details of the Event
Studies predict an increase in the elderly population in Spain, with individuals over 65 years old expected to comprise about 30% of the total population by 2055. This trend toward an aging population will result in a growing number of retirees, increasing pressure on the social security system.
Moreover, the shortage of migrants, who are often from younger age groups, will lead to a sharp decline in the available workforce. Projections indicate that the working-age population will decrease from 33 million to 24 million by 2075, significantly impacting sectors reliant on foreign labor, such as agriculture and public services.
Background & Context
Historically, Spain has been one of the main destinations for migrants, attracting millions from around the world. However, the rise of anti-immigration rhetoric in recent years, coupled with stricter government policies, has contributed to a reduction in immigration flows. In 2025, there were 3.58 million foreign workers in Spain, representing 16% of the labor market, the highest percentage ever recorded.
Studies show that migrants have significantly contributed to Spain's economic growth, with a large part of the increase in GDP attributed to their presence. It is expected that a reduction in immigration flows could lead to a substantial decline in economic growth, with GDP potentially decreasing by up to 22% by 2075.
Impact & Consequences
If these trends continue, Spain will face a major economic and social crisis. The lack of migrants will lead to the closure of many businesses, with approximately 90,000 restaurants and bars expected to disappear, negatively impacting other sectors such as food production and tourism.
Public services will also be affected, as hospital waiting lists will increase due to a shortage of doctors and healthcare practitioners. It is anticipated that around 63,000 specialized doctors will vanish, leading to increased pressure on the healthcare system.
Regional Significance
These developments in Spain are particularly significant for the Arab region, where migration from Arab countries to Europe represents a key option for many young people. If Spain continues to reduce immigration flows, these youths may turn to other countries, exacerbating economic and social challenges in their home countries.
In conclusion, the report illustrates that migration is not merely a humanitarian issue but a fundamental element in shaping Spain's future. The reduction of immigration flows could have serious repercussions on the economy and society, necessitating a reevaluation of immigration policies.