Iran is witnessing radical changes in its power structure as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard increasingly takes control, reflecting a decline in the role of the Iranian president. These changes come amid the ongoing conflict with Israel and the United States, which escalated following attacks on Iran's nuclear program last June.
Under these circumstances, the military influence of the Revolutionary Guard has become more apparent, as it has managed to replace military leaders who fell during the attacks and occupy positions that were previously under civilian control, thereby enhancing its authority within the Iranian government.
Details of the Situation
Following the attacks on Iran, some analysts anticipated that military pressures would lead to a rapid collapse of the government. However, experts on Iranian affairs warned that these expectations were overly simplistic. Despite a decline in military power, Iran remains capable of threatening the interests of Washington and its allies, as well as closing the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic, creating tensions in global energy markets.
Attention is now focused on the Revolutionary Guard, which is consolidating its power through new appointments in high positions, such as the appointment of Mohammad Baqer Zolghadr as head of the National Security Council following the killing of Ali Larijani in an Israeli attack. These appointments indicate a decline in the authority of President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose role has become limited to signing orders.
Background & Context
Historically, Iran has undergone a significant transformation in its power structure since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The war with Iraq contributed to the enhancement of the Revolutionary Guard's influence, as it became pivotal in both the economy and politics. Over time, the role of the presidency has gradually diminished, particularly after the suppression of protests in 2009.
This decline became even more pronounced with the rise of Ibrahim Raisi to power in 2019, backed by the Revolutionary Guard. This led to a consolidation of military control over political decisions, making the Revolutionary Guard the actual force managing the country.
Impact & Consequences
Concerns are growing that these transformations may bolster internal repression policies, with expectations that the Revolutionary Guard will intensify the suppression of any political opposition after the current conflict ends. Some analysts have indicated that this dynamic could lead to heightened internal tensions in Iran.
Moreover, these changes may affect Iran's foreign policy, as Tehran might adopt a more aggressive stance towards its adversaries, increasing the likelihood of new conflicts erupting in the region.
Regional Significance
These developments are particularly significant for Arab countries, as they may lead to heightened tensions in the Gulf region. The strengthening of the Revolutionary Guard's influence could increase Iran's intervention in the internal affairs of neighboring countries, threatening regional stability.
In light of these circumstances, Arab nations must take proactive steps to address potential challenges arising from the increasing Iranian influence, whether through enhancing security cooperation or forging new alliances.