Concerns are rising over the potential resumption of US military operations against Iran, with experts suggesting it could negatively impact President Trump's popularity. Amid stalled negotiations, the situation remains tense.
The newspaper Argumenty i Fakty surveyed several Russian experts on this topic, noting that President Donald Trump's decision to indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran could have significant repercussions. Although negotiations between the US and Iran have not actually taken place, Trump appears unhurried to resume military strikes.
Details of the Situation
Political analyst Murad Bashirov believes that the US military buildup in the Middle East reinforces the belief that new military strikes are inevitable. A new round of US-Iranian talks was supposed to take place in Pakistan, but neither delegation attended due to Iran's conditions regarding lifting the US naval blockade.
The US rejection of this condition is considered obvious, as it would be seen as a concession to Iranian authorities. Bashirov points out that the delays promoted by Trump are merely a means to deploy new forces and air defense systems, making new military strikes unavoidable.
Background & Context
In contrast, Fyodor Lukyanov, director of research at the Valdai International Discussion Club, disagrees, asserting that Iran will respond to any US attack with its missiles, especially given the depletion of US missiles. He notes that Washington understands that a new wave of strikes will not yield any new results, and a large-scale ground operation would be fraught with risks.
Before the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the US amassed 300,000 troops, while the current number of US forces in the Middle East does not exceed 100,000, with some estimates suggesting only 50,000. Additionally, Iran's mountainous terrain complicates the possibility of executing successful military operations.
Impact & Consequences
Political analyst Malik Dudakov asserts that war with Iran has turned into a political disaster for Trump, as polls show his approval rating has dropped to 33%, with 80% of voters believing the US has lost in this conflict. The war with Iran has also negatively impacted the lives of American citizens, with fuel and food prices continuously rising.
A significant portion of Americans is seeking for the White House to cease its interventions in Middle Eastern affairs and focus on domestic issues. The war with Iran has had a negative effect on the economy, leading to 75% of the American public being dissatisfied with rising living costs.
Regional Significance
The current developments in US-Iranian relations are of great importance to the Arab region, as any military escalation could destabilize neighboring countries. Furthermore, the continuation of tensions may affect oil markets and exacerbate economic crises in the region.
In conclusion, the resumption of hostilities could completely destroy Trump's popularity, especially if he decides to launch a ground operation that would inevitably lead to casualties, which would have severe consequences for the US administration, particularly in light of the upcoming elections.