Lebanese official and public circles are keenly awaiting the first round of direct negotiations with Israel, which will commence at the U.S. State Department on Tuesday. These negotiations come at a sensitive time, as many fear their failure due to both sides' insistence on their conditions, which could negatively affect the internal Lebanese situation if they succeed, especially given Hezbollah's absolute rejection of any agreement that restricts its movement or seeks to disarm it.
Both Lebanon and Israel are holding firm to their negotiating terms, with Beirut prioritizing a comprehensive ceasefire, Israel's withdrawal from the occupied southern regions, and the deployment of the Lebanese army in conflict areas. Conversely, Israel insists that negotiations occur under fire and begin with the disarmament of Hezbollah, which threatens to derail the talks even before they start.
Details of the Event
Despite Lebanon and Israel agreeing to the principle of direct negotiations for the first time since 1982, this does not guarantee tangible results, especially with Hezbollah's capability to undermine them. Former Minister Rashid Derbas pointed out that the party may resort to field escalation through rocket launches and drone strikes, which could provoke broader Israeli responses on Lebanese territory.
Derbas urged the Lebanese government to allow full opportunity for action, noting the paradox that Hezbollah ties its disarmament to the establishment of the state while simultaneously obstructing state-building and the consolidation of its institutions. He also called on various political forces to rally around the government to enable it to manage negotiations with Israel.
Background & Context
Hezbollah is approaching the negotiations with extreme caution, rejecting any formula interpreted as a strategic concession, particularly regarding its military presence and disarmament. Former MP Faris Saeed believes that the negotiation process with Israel is linked to two fundamental principles: acceptance of the negotiation principle to reach a political solution and the mechanism of this negotiation. He indicated that the official Lebanese stance has gained a more advanced position, as the principle of negotiating with Israel is now accepted by a broad segment of Lebanese and Arabs.
However, the issue lies in the mechanism, as Israel seeks to impose negotiations under fire, while Lebanon insists on conducting them after Israel withdraws from the occupied points and a complete ceasefire is established. Additionally, the Lebanese state, which is negotiating officially, does not have full control over the war and peace file, given Hezbollah's influence.
Impact & Consequences
Minister Derbas warned that Hezbollah's conditions are impossible to achieve, as the balance of power clearly favors Israel, which dominates the air, sea, and land in Lebanon. Derbas also ruled out the possibility of the party resorting to street actions, considering that the street cannot overturn an agreement but may showcase its strength.
Hezbollah accuses President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam of succumbing to Israeli conditions. Saeed points out that negotiations do not necessarily have to lead quickly to a peace agreement; they could start with interim arrangements, such as a security agreement or a return to the ceasefire agreement.
Regional Significance
These negotiations represent an important step in Lebanese-Israeli relations and may open the door to new transformations in the region. At the same time, concerns remain about the implications of these negotiations on internal stability in Lebanon, especially amid ongoing tensions between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state.
In conclusion, the future of the negotiations hangs on the ability of the involved parties to overcome current obstacles and find common ground that ensures the interests of all parties, including maintaining security and stability in Lebanon and the region.