International efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are increasing, with Britain and France leading initiatives to form a broad military coalition. This comes at a time when Iran warns that any military intervention in the strait will escalate tensions in the region.
These movements coincide with talks of anticipated negotiations between the United States and Iran, but military expert Brigadier General Elias Hanna believes that military discussions are still in their early stages, and forming a force that includes around 30 countries will take a long time.
Details of the Event
Hanna raises questions about the nature of this force: is it peaceful or military in nature? He explains that a peaceful option does not require such a large coalition, while a military option to secure navigation and escort oil tankers carries high costs and significant complexities.
He recalls the experience of 1988, when the United States led operations to escort ships by dividing the Gulf into secured areas with mine sweepers, naval vessels, and air cover. However, he points out a fundamental difference in the current context, as Iran is now in direct friction with Washington, making the repetition of this scenario more difficult.
Context and Background
Western countries are seeking to support efforts to reopen the strait, with Britain possessing advanced capabilities in mine clearance and naval operations. Meanwhile, France prefers to prioritize de-escalation, reflecting a divergence in the positions of the participating countries.
In the face of the threat of naval mines, mine sweepers emerge as a central tool, as these vessels are designed with a low magnetic signature and limited noise to avoid mines. Their operations begin with detecting mines using sonar and classifying them, then moving on to disable or detonate them using underwater robots or specialized divers.
Impact and Consequences
Hanna indicates that any attempt to forcibly open the strait means a direct confrontation, as Iran has turned the strait into a "selective" corridor under its control, benefiting from its geographical position and control over strategic islands such as Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa, making any maritime movement susceptible to targeting.
The current U.S. military presence, which includes around 7,000 Marines and paratroopers, primarily aims to support the negotiating position and provide Washington with additional options, but it is insufficient for carrying out extensive military operations to control the islands or the Iranian coast.
Impact on the Arab Region
On March 2, Iran announced restrictions on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to attack any ships attempting to cross this strategic corridor without coordinating with it, in response to U.S.-Israeli aggression against it. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, making any closure significantly impactful on oil prices and global trade.
Closing the strait could lead to increased shipping and insurance costs, raising concerns about potential global economic repercussions that could particularly affect Arab countries.