The Iranian leadership believes that the United Arab Emirates is playing an active role in the US-Israeli war against Iran, warning that any American invasion could lead to widespread attacks on Emirati assets. This statement came from two senior Iranian sources, who indicated that Tehran has ended a period of tolerance towards Abu Dhabi after concluding that its role extends beyond merely hosting American military facilities.
Amid escalating conflict, which has negatively impacted global markets, US President Donald Trump is considering the possibility of deploying ground forces to seize strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to prevent Iran from disrupting energy supplies. Attention has focused on the islands of Qeshm and Hormuz, through which approximately 90% of Iranian oil exports pass.
Details of the Situation
Reports indicate that any military operation could be launched from American bases in Gulf countries, which have been subjected to retaliatory Iranian attacks as a result of US-Israeli strikes, resulting in the deaths of at least 1,900 people so far. Anti-Iran sentiments have increased in Gulf countries, where multiple targets, including energy infrastructure, have been subjected to retaliatory attacks.
In this context, statements from the Emirati ambassador to the United States have emerged, who wrote in the Wall Street Journal that a ceasefire would not be sufficient, and that the conflicting parties must seek a decisive outcome that addresses all threats from Iran. Reports also indicate that some Gulf countries are considering joining US-Israeli attacks against Iran.
Background & Context
Historically, relations between Iran and the UAE have been tense, especially following the escalation of regional conflicts. In recent years, Iran has employed multiple strategies to counter external pressures, including strengthening its alliances with countries like Russia, which supports it in its struggle against the United States and its allies.
The UAE, a close ally of Israel, serves as an advanced platform for Israeli interests in the region. An Iranian official indicated that cooperation between the UAE and Israel may involve the use of advanced infrastructure for data collection and analysis to support US and Israeli objectives, including information on Iranian figures and locations.
Impact & Consequences
Iran anticipates that any attack on its territory or islands will provoke a strong reaction, considering any country participating in the invasion as an enemy state. An Iranian diplomat warned that Iranian strikes would not be limited to military or intelligence targets but would encompass all government institutions and state-linked interests, including commercial assets owned by the UAE.
This potential escalation could lead to a greater intensification of the conflict, further complicating the security situation in the region and impacting the stability of global markets, particularly in the energy sector.
Regional Significance
These developments are particularly significant for Arab countries, as they may lead to an escalation of regional conflicts and increased tensions between Arab states and Iran. Any escalation in the conflict could negatively affect security and stability in the Gulf, threatening the economic interests of Arab nations.
In conclusion, the situation in the Gulf appears to be heading towards further complexity, with rising risks from the escalation of conflict between Iran and the United States and its allies, necessitating clear positions from Arab states to protect their interests.