Despite assurances from both the United States and Israel that Iran's missile capabilities have been effectively destroyed, Iran continues to demonstrate its ability to carry out missile strikes on targets in Israel and Gulf states. These strikes come at a time when tensions in the region are escalating, as the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran enters its fourth week.
On March 14, the White House posted on social media stating that "Iran's ballistic missile capability has been functionally destroyed"; however, Iran continued to execute missile strikes ten days after this announcement, raising questions about the accuracy of these claims.
Details of the Events
Military analysts reported that while Iran's missile launch capability has deteriorated, it has not been entirely exhausted, which is considered significant. Burçak Özçelik, a Middle East security analyst, confirmed that "the ability to launch missiles has deteriorated, but it has not been exhausted, which is important." Kelly Grieco from the Stimson Center added that attacks on Iranian military sites have not achieved the expected impact due to what she described as an "operational shift" by Iran.
In the early days of the war, Iran launched over 500 ballistic missiles and more than 2000 drones, but the hit rate was below 5%. However, launch rates dropped by over 90% in the following two weeks, while the hit rate increased, indicating that Iran was launching fewer missiles but achieving more hits.
Background & Context
Iran is considered one of the countries with the largest and most comprehensive missile arsenal in the Middle East, with an estimated 2500 missiles before the war, while some independent experts suggest the number could reach 6000. These missiles include types such as Sejil, Qadr, and Khorramshahr, which have ranges of up to 2000 kilometers, in addition to Emdad, Shahab-3, and Hoveyzeh.
Despite the attacks on Iran, reports indicate that there are at least five "missile cities" underground in several Iranian provinces, making it difficult to assess the impact of military pressures on Iran's missile arsenal.
Impact & Consequences
Iran's ability to rebuild its missile arsenal is a critical issue in the context of the ongoing conflict. Experts indicate that Iran may have been able to produce around 300 missiles per month at the beginning of the war, but this number has now dropped to only 40 missiles per month. Nevertheless, there remains a question of whether Iran can compensate for the losses resulting from military pressures.
Statements from General Ali Mohammad Naeini, spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, indicate that Iran continues to produce missiles even under wartime conditions, suggesting that there is a capacity to stockpile these weapons. However, the question remains about how quickly this process can compensate for losses.
Regional Significance
These developments are of significant importance to the Arab region, as they demonstrate Iran's ability to exert military pressures despite challenges. The continuation of the conflict may affect the stability of Gulf states and exacerbate tensions in the region. This situation is a major concern for Arab countries seeking to maintain their security and stability.
In conclusion, Iran's ability to maintain its missile arsenal and rebuild what it has lost in the conflict is a vital issue as the United States and Israel seek to diminish this capability in the future. The situation in the region remains tense, requiring careful monitoring by all concerned parties.