A recent opinion poll has shown that a significant majority of young Israelis aged 18 to 22, who will be voting for the first time in the upcoming parliamentary elections, support Benjamin Netanyahu's government. If voting were limited to this age group alone, they would re-elect the current government uncontested.
According to the poll published by the newspaper "Maariv" and conducted by the Lazar Research Institute, 56% of young voters identify as right-wing, while 22% lean towards the center-right. In contrast, 14% reported being centrist, and only 8% identified as left-wing or left-leaning.
Polling Details and Trends
The poll results also indicate a clear inclination among young voters towards the right when examining their voting patterns. For instance, the far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir may double his strength among this demographic, as he is expected to secure 14 seats if elections were held today, compared to 6 seats currently. Meanwhile, another far-right minister, Bezalel Smotrich, whose chances are declining according to most polls, may obtain 5 seats.
The Likud party, led by Netanyahu, could rise from 27 seats in current polls to 28 seats among these young voters. Conversely, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's support is projected to drop from 19 seats to 17 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot's party is expected to decline to 10 seats.
Background & Context
If we assume that this young generation will determine the election outcome, the ruling coalition led by Netanyahu would win a majority of 63 seats compared to 48 seats for opposition parties. These results come at a time when most public polls indicate that opposition parties would secure 60 seats against 50 seats for coalition parties.
Moreover, young voters have chosen Netanyahu as the best candidate for prime minister, receiving 35% of the votes, while Naftali Bennett garnered 19%, with lower percentages for other candidates. Itamar Ben Gvir received 6% support for the prime minister position.
Impact & Consequences
The poll results suggest that the events of October 7, 2023, which witnessed Hamas's attack on towns bordering Gaza, have strengthened the religious ties of the majority of these young voters. 57% of them reported that their religious faith has been reinforced since that date, while 54% stated that their adherence to Jewish traditions has increased.
The results also showed that 68% of young people feel proud to be Israeli, with about half considering Israel a very good place to live. Meanwhile, 79% expressed satisfaction with life in Israel.
Regional Significance
These results indicate that the recent war and political events have pushed Israeli society towards the right, which may affect relations with Arab countries. The rise of right-wing currents could increase tensions in the region and bolster hardline positions regarding Palestinian and Arab issues.
In conclusion, it appears that the new generation of Israeli voters may be more hardline than previous generations, raising questions about the future of Israeli politics and its impact on the region.