On February 28, U.S. President Donald Trump initiated the 'Epic Fury' operation aimed at reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East in favor of the U.S. and its allies against the growing Iranian threat. This operation seeks to curb Iran's ability to extend its influence in the region, paving the way for a Middle East characterized by peace and integration between Arabs and Israelis.
Trump and his team believe that defeating Iran represents the culmination of a long-standing struggle with the Islamic Republic, which dealt a blow to the United States shortly after its establishment by holding U.S. embassy staff in Tehran hostage for 444 days. Since the onset of the conflict, Trump has presented American voters with a series of attacks launched by Iran and its allies against U.S. interests, including the bombing of U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983.
Details of the Operation
As part of the 'Epic Fury' operation, Trump justified the American-Israeli campaign against Iranian leadership and its strategic sites, deeming it necessary to confront a growing Iranian threat. He criticized his Democratic predecessors, such as Barack Obama and Joe Biden, for their failure to confront the challenges posed by Tehran, including making economic concessions.
However, Trump's critics argue that the main challenge posed by Iran, its nuclear program, was partially resolved through the nuclear agreement reached by Obama in 2015. Yet, Trump escalated the crisis regarding the nuclear file by withdrawing from the agreement in 2018.
Background & Context
The United States aims to improve its geopolitical position in the region through this operation. If the 'Epic Fury' strikes lead to the surrender or collapse of the Iranian regime, it would enhance Washington's influence in global energy markets. Iran, dominated by the Revolutionary Guard, views its control over energy and trade movement through the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic victory.
The pivotal question is whether Trump can reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force or diplomacy. Experts agree that ending the war in a manner that leaves Iran in control of global trade would be an embarrassment for the United States.
Impact & Consequences
Defeating Iran would reassure Gulf Arab states regarding the importance of American security alliances, potentially allowing Washington to exert greater influence over energy markets. At the same time, Tehran recognizes that Trump, having so far failed to topple the regime, is in a strategically weaker position.
Iran is leveraging what it considers its strengths in negotiations, demanding an end to the war, compensation payments, lifting sanctions, and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Gulf. The Iranian regime's refusal to back down from these demands may prompt Trump to order a U.S. ground attack.
Regional Significance
The United States seeks to bolster its military presence in the region, with options including seizing strategic areas. Trump may order the seizure of the vital Iranian export port on Kharq Island, which could significantly escalate the war with Iran.
It is unlikely that Trump will end the conflict unless Tehran is weakened strategically and militarily, and any other outcome would tarnish his presidency. Trump's stance in this war could have far-reaching effects on American policy in the Middle East.