An Italian report published by the website "Inside Over" reveals the failure of a complex intelligence plan devised by the Israeli Mossad to overthrow the Iranian regime from within. The report explains that what appeared to be a quick bet on an "internal explosion" turned into a costly strategic error, despite political and intelligence support from the United States and Israel.
Writer Roberto Vivaldelli noted in his article that the Mossad's support for protests against the Iranian government was no secret, as the official accounts of the Israeli intelligence agency in Persian openly incited the population to take to the streets. Public statements from former American officials, such as former CIA director Mike Pompeo, also revealed coordination between Jerusalem and Washington to support the internal opposition.
Details of the Event
However, an investigation published by the New York Times, based on interviews with more than 12 current and former officials from the United States, Israel, and other countries, revealed a broader and clearer picture. The role of the Mossad was not limited to media or rhetorical support; it involved detailed planning for a comprehensive operation aimed at regime change within a war strategy framework.
The story began in mid-January when Mossad Director David Barnea presented an ambitious plan to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aimed at stimulating Iranian opposition during the early days of the outbreak of hostilities. Barnea presented the same proposal to senior officials in President Donald Trump's administration, where Netanyahu approved the plan, and Trump adopted it, despite doubts within leadership circles in the United States and some Israeli establishment circles, particularly the military intelligence agency (Aman).
Background & Context
The plan relied on assassinating Iranian leaders in the early hours of the conflict, alongside executing airstrikes and intelligence operations aimed at encouraging a widespread popular uprising. However, American intelligence estimates were clear from the outset, considering the collapse of the Iranian government to be "relatively unlikely." Nevertheless, Trump called on Iranians in his first speech during the war to "restore their government," indicating that they would be safe.
But after three weeks, the promised uprising did not materialize, and joint assessments from American and Israeli intelligence showed that the regime, despite its weaknesses, remained cohesive, as the population was constrained by fear of police and armed forces. The report indicated that the "fundamental flaw" in this war was the belief that Israel and the United States could bring down Iran from within.
Impact & Consequences
Tehran responded with a counterattack on multiple fronts, targeting military bases, cities, ships, and oil facilities in the Gulf region. Netanyahu expressed his anger and frustration in a security meeting just days after the outbreak of the conflict, especially since Trump could decide to end the confrontation at any moment before the Mossad operations yielded significant results.
The investigation dedicated a separate section to what is known as the "Kurdish option," where the plan involved arming and supporting Iranian Kurdish militias based in northern Iraq, with the aim of executing a cross-border attack. However, Trump halted the operation, stating explicitly, "I do not want to enter the Kurds," and Turkey sent a clear warning to Washington rejecting any support for Kurdish operations.
Regional Significance
Until recently, the Mossad itself considered inciting an uprising in Iran to be unrealistic, as Yossi Cohen, the former head of the Mossad, minimized the resources allocated to this file. However, Barnea changed the course, leading to violent unrest that resulted in around 3,000 deaths in Iran between January 8 and 9.
Western media, including the New York Times and The Guardian, played a pivotal role in legitimizing Israeli disinformation by inflating casualty numbers and concealing the fact that many were killed by Israeli-backed rebels. In conclusion, Blumenthal pointed out that the Western media deliberately distorted the true nature of those disturbances.