Concerns are growing that a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran could significantly strain the relationship between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In an article for The Times, writer Richard Spencer questioned how this shift from a 'regime change war' to negotiated peace might affect the close alliance between the two leaders.
The main point of tension revolves around whether Netanyahu has 'deceived' the United States into a catastrophic war against Iran, a claim that Israeli officials have repeatedly denied. However, forecasts suggest that the coming weeks may reveal the resilience of the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu.
Details of the Event
Trump, known as the 'deal maker', seems to be seeking a diplomatic victory that he can market to the American public ahead of the upcoming elections. In contrast, Netanyahu is focused on ensuring that any lasting settlement does not overlook Israel's vital security interests, such as Iran's missile program and Tehran's support for its allies in the region, including Hezbollah.
The Times noted that Netanyahu played a pivotal role in pushing Trump toward a decision to go to war with Iran. On February 11, Netanyahu and Mossad Director David Barnea presented a briefing at the White House, where they promised to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and topple the regime. However, the Israeli assessment was that the Iranian regime would be too weak to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a prediction that later proved incorrect.
Context and Background
Although Trump has taken steps in line with Netanyahu's plans, the U.S. intelligence community has been skeptical about the feasibility of these plans. CIA Director John Ratcliffe described the Israeli 'regime change' plan as 'far-fetched', even if weakening Iran's military capabilities is possible.
The Times considers that the greatest threat to the alliance between Trump and Netanyahu lies in Trump's aversion to appearing as a 'fool'. If peace talks result in minimal Iranian concessions, a media narrative could emerge suggesting that Trump 'chickened out' of a war he could not win.
Implications and Effects
If Trump concludes that Netanyahu was 'unrealistic or dishonest' about the effectiveness of airstrikes, it could lead to significant and unforeseen repercussions for U.S.-Israel relations. Despite these potential fractures, The Times expects that the near-term outcome will be a continued display of unity between the two sides, as both leaders have a substantial political interest in declaring war as a success.
In this context, Netanyahu would be satisfied with the military weakening of Iran, while Trump could claim, regardless of the evidence, that Iran has been militarily destroyed. His acknowledgment of the war's failure to achieve its objectives could undermine the entire narrative of his second term.
Impact on the Arab Region
In the long term, the writer believes that the joint war on Iran has accelerated a shift in U.S.-Israel relations, leading to a state of anger among the American center and left regarding their country’s unconditional support for Israel. An increasing number of Democrats have pledged to refuse donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), reflecting a growing divide over unconditional support for Israel.
Spencer also noted that Israelis overwhelmingly supported the war, while Americans did not. This disparity, coupled with the volatile personalities of Trump and Netanyahu, suggests that any ceasefire that may be reached could push the two men further apart than the war did.