The US-Israeli war on Iran is moving towards a critical juncture, with parties seeking an exit more than a victory, amid conflicting statements and a lack of a clear vision for the end of the conflict. As international pressures escalate, multiple scenarios are being proposed by analysts, ranging from a political agreement to a freeze on hostilities or even intermittent continuation, without a definitive resolution.
Middle East policy expert Mahjoub Al-Zuwairi believes that the war has effectively entered a phase of mutual exhaustion, with its economic, political, and human impacts becoming increasingly evident. Al-Zuwairi noted that this situation may push the parties towards transitioning to a new phase governed by rising international pressures, along with the US administration's ability to sustain and justify the war, which may shape the contours of the anticipated end.
Details of the Event
In this context, political analyst Ameen Qamouria presents three traditional scenarios for the end of wars: military resolution, agreement, or cessation without agreement. Qamouria rules out military resolution, favoring either a complex agreement or a freeze on the conflict, as the reasons for the war remain valid and could reignite, raising central questions about the role of the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of linking it to a ceasefire.
Former US President Donald Trump had threatened to strike Iranian power stations if Tehran did not open the Strait of Hormuz to international navigation, later extending the deadline twice, with the second deadline ending on April 6 for a peace agreement, threatening to destroy Iranian power stations if this did not occur.
Context and Background
For his part, senior researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies Leqaa Maki confirms that the war has reached its most complex stages, with each party striving to create a narrative of victory for its audience, amid a lack of mutual concessions and the continuation of coercive logic instead of settlement. Maki points out that the field indicators, including ongoing strikes and military preparations, reflect that escalation remains a pressure tool to reach a solution.
From a different angle, Ibrahim Fraihat, a professor of international conflicts at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, believes that the most likely scenario is one of intermittent warfare, which does not end completely nor continues continuously. Fraihat attributes this scenario to the absence of a clear vision among those who hold the decision to end the war, and the high costs compared to its gains, especially for the United States.
Impact and Consequences
Senior researcher at the Center for International Policy in Washington Negar Mortazavi reinforces this notion, considering that the ambiguity of decision-making within the US administration and the contradictions in its positions increase the difficulty of predicting an end, while Iran seeks to ensure that war does not return, viewing the continuation of fighting or achieving economic gains as the safest option for itself.
In this context, military expert Brigadier General Elias Hanna notes that Iran, even if it suffers military losses, seeks to avoid strategic defeat, considering that its primary option currently is to endure, with the possibility of continued confrontation even in the event of a unilateral halt to the war.
Impact on the Arab Region
For his part, the head of the Al-Madar Center for Political Studies Saleh Al-Mutairi presents three final scenarios: continued exhaustion, controlled limited escalation, or a wide regional explosion, suggesting that the high cost of war may push towards the first or second scenario. Conversely, former US Department of Defense advisor Hiam Nawas links the motivations for war to Iran's irresponsible regional behavior and its military and nuclear capabilities, considering that possessing such capabilities is a source of concern.
Nawas indicates that the ambiguity of the US position reflects the administration's desire to keep its options open without revealing its paths, suggesting that the war will not end soon. Analyses converge on the absence of a clear end to the war, with scenarios of freezing, exhaustion, or intermittent confrontation being favored, while the final decision remains contingent on complex balances, intertwining military calculations with political and economic pressures, without definitive indicators of a near resolution.