The Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical waterways in the world, has seen a significant drop in the number of ships crossing it. According to the analytics firm Kepler, only 138 crossings were recorded from March 1 to 04:00 (GMT) on March 23, representing a 95% decrease compared to the pre-war period.
The intensity of conflicts in the region has escalated since the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, prompting Iran to close this strategic passage. Most of the crossings were by Iranian oil and gas tankers, with reports indicating that over half of them were loaded.
Details of the Event
Last week, the specialized magazine Lloyd's List reported that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to suffer from severe disruption. The magazine's editor-in-chief, Richard Mead, explained that the majority of maritime traffic consists of bulk carriers, oil tankers, and container ships.
In a development considered positive, three additional ships crossed the strait last Monday, including two Indian-flagged tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas and an oil tanker heading to China, indicating signs of a partial recovery in commercial activity after a period of stagnation.
Background & Context
Historically, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways globally, through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows during peacetime. However, the strait has witnessed waves of political tensions and military conflicts, significantly impacting maritime navigation.
As the conflict between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other intensifies, the strait has become a focal point of major issues concerning global energy supplies, leading many countries to seek alternatives due to the imposed restrictions.
Impact & Consequences
Many reports predict that the continuation of conflicts and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a rise in global oil prices, as a large number of countries—especially in Asia—rely on oil and gas supplies from the region. Since the beginning of the war, 40% of the ships that crossed the strait were subject to U.S. or European sanctions.
Analysts from J.P. Morgan confirmed that 98% of the oil traffic through the strait was Iranian, reflecting the significant impact of Iranian developments on the global market. The notion has also spread that commercial activity has not yet fully recovered, even with some signs of activity emerging.
Regional Significance
In the Arab context, events in the Strait of Hormuz are a significant concern, as energy security for several countries is directly linked to these events. The increasing likelihood of rising oil and gas prices will have direct effects on economies reliant on energy imports.
Recent developments in the strait have demonstrated that political chaos means diminished opportunities for cooperation among major Arab countries, which may face common threats to energy security, necessitating a unified vision to address such threats.
In conclusion, it seems that the crises associated with the Strait of Hormuz will persist as long as regional conflicts continue, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of all developments in the area and their future impacts.