Reports suggest that a strong El Niño phenomenon could form later this year, heightening concerns about global food security. Scientists have warned that this phenomenon may exacerbate food crises due to the disruptions caused by the war in Iran.
European climate models predict a high likelihood of a strong or 'super' El Niño, although what is known as the 'spring barrier' may affect the accuracy of these forecasts. El Niño is characterized by a rise in sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, and it is declared when these temperatures increase by 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.
Details of the Event
There are growing fears that the strong El Niño phenomenon could lead to rising food prices, particularly affecting commodities such as cocoa, cooking oils, rice, and sugar. Forecasts indicate that countries reliant on agriculture in tropical regions, such as India, Australia, and Brazil, may face significant challenges as a result of this phenomenon.
At the same time, the war in Iran has caused a spike in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, negatively impacting food production. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the world's maritime fertilizer trade passes, is a vital point, and shipping traffic there has seen a significant decline since military pressures began.
Background & Context
These forecasts come after years of the La Niña phenomenon, which typically leads to a decrease in global temperatures. The Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that the number of people suffering from food insecurity could reach unprecedented levels if the war in Iran continues and oil prices exceed $100 per barrel.
The organization predicts that the number of people experiencing acute hunger could increase by 45 million if conditions remain unchanged. This situation adds to the 318 million people who are already suffering from food insecurity worldwide.
Impact & Consequences
Analyses indicate that the impact of a strong El Niño may be more severe than the effects of the war in Ukraine on food prices. The rise in fertilizer prices due to the war in Iran poses a greater threat to food production compared to the increase in other food prices.
If negative factors such as war and the El Niño phenomenon converge, it could exacerbate food crises in many countries. A coordinated international response is required to address these escalating challenges.
Regional Significance
For Arab countries, the impact of the El Niño phenomenon could be severe, especially in nations that rely on agriculture. Countries like Sudan and South Sudan may face dry conditions that affect the main agricultural season.
These circumstances necessitate enhanced international cooperation to ensure food security sustainability in the region, as the risks associated with the global food system are unlikely to disappear anytime soon.