The current confrontation between the United States and Iran reveals new dimensions of modern conflicts, as American writer Thomas Friedman observes. In his article for the New York Times, Friedman points out that President Donald Trump's administration suffers from a profound misunderstanding of the nature of these conflicts, especially given the geopolitical shifts caused by "asymmetric wars."
Trump frequently borrows poker terminology, telling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he "has no cards" against Russia, and informing Iranian leaders that they "have no cards" against him. However, Friedman goes further, asserting that Trump himself lacks the cards he believes he possesses, relying on imposing an oil blockade on Iran to force it to negotiate on his terms.
Details of the Current Situation
While Tehran bets on its ability to withstand economic pressures, it uses the Strait of Hormuz as leverage to influence global markets by raising energy prices. This situation, as Friedman describes, is a clash of wills, with each side attempting to force the other to back down. Nevertheless, the author raises a crucial question about Iran's ability to endure two months against the combined military power of the United States and Israel, noting that this stems from Trump's misjudgment of the nature of "asymmetric warfare" that is reshaping the global balance of power.
Friedman presents multiple examples of this shift, such as Ukraine's use of low-cost drones to strike strategic targets within Russia and Iran's use of "Shahed" drones to target digital infrastructure in the Gulf. He also points out that armed groups rely on primitive means to manufacture low-cost missiles, in contrast to expensive defensive systems.
Background & Context
These developments indicate a transition to an era where smaller powers or resource-limited groups can make significant impacts using targeted digital tools, thereby narrowing the traditional military power gap. However, Friedman cites warnings from technical experts, such as Craig Mundie, former head of research and strategy at Microsoft, that the world is transitioning from the information age to the age of artificial intelligence.
Digital tools are no longer limited to enhancing the capabilities of trained individuals; they now allow for the replacement of these individuals with artificial intelligence agents capable of executing complex operations independently. AI tools based on large language models enable the execution of complex, self-guided cyberattacks at a low cost, granting "strong cards" to entities that previously had no influence.
Impact & Consequences
Recent reports indicate that some AI models can discover serious vulnerabilities in technical systems, reflecting the difficulty of containing the spread of these tools. In light of these challenges, Friedman calls for cooperation between the United States and China, as the two main powers in the field of artificial intelligence, to establish mechanisms to mitigate shared risks, akin to nuclear arms reduction agreements during the Cold War.
Friedman concludes that the absence of such cooperation could leave all nations vulnerable to unprecedented risks in a world where the capacity of individuals and small entities to cause widespread disruptions at low costs is increasing.
Regional Significance
The Arab region is directly affected by this conflict, as any escalation between the United States and Iran could lead to serious economic and security repercussions. Additionally, Iran's use of the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure tool could impact global oil prices, reflecting on the economies of oil-producing Arab nations.
In conclusion, modern conflicts require a deep understanding of geopolitical transformations, and the current stakes may be more complex than they appear.