Former Libyan Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha has asserted that the absence of genuine will to eliminate the presence of militias in the country threatens Libya's unity. He cautioned that serious risks could lead to the division of the country amid ongoing political and military fragmentation.
In an interview with Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, Bashagha explained that the fate of militias in Libya ranges from weakness and disintegration to integration into state institutions, provided there is serious will among leaders to strengthen legitimate security institutions. He noted that the current reality reflects the absence of this will, as each party seeks to expand its military influence and seize gains, which threatens the country with a new armed conflict.
Details of the Current Situation
Bashagha ruled out the success of unifying the military institution in the absence of a unified government leading the army under a single command, emphasizing that competition among multiple parties complicates matters. He also pointed out that the state of division in Libya warns of serious risks that could lead to disintegration or division into more than one entity, especially with the rising calls for secession in the south.
He warned that the widening circle of fragmentation could open the door to armed conflicts fueled by external interventions. Bashagha confirmed that the House of Representatives and the High Council of State are exchanging obstruction of decisions, particularly electoral laws, amid a lack of coordination, despite what the political agreement stipulates.
Background & Context
It is noteworthy that Bashagha served as the head of the government appointed by the House of Representatives from March 2022 until May 2023 after the parliament withdrew confidence from Abdul Hamid Dbeibah's government. Libya has witnessed political and military division in recent years, with two governments vying for power: one in the west led by Dbeibah and the other controlling eastern Libya and parts of the south under Osama Hamad, supported by the Libyan National Army led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.
In assessing the role of the United Nations, Bashagha noted that its mission has succeeded at certain points and failed at others, adding that the repeated changes of UN envoys lead to a disruption in following up on plans. Although it has succeeded in forming transitional governments, it has not completed the path towards elections that would grant full legitimacy to state institutions.
Impact & Consequences
Bashagha believes that the current vision of the UN mission remains unclear, as it has only formed an advisory committee without real indicators of consensus. He also pointed out that the selection of participants in the structured dialogue raises questions about the criteria for selection and fairness in representation.
In this context, Bashagha confirmed that the movements of the US President's Special Advisor for African Affairs, Masad Boulos, have raised questions about the possibility of merging the two governments in the east and west, warning that this could exacerbate the conflict and increase the likelihood of confrontation. He affirmed that the US role remains supportive of the UN mission but has not received full Libyan satisfaction.
Regional Significance
The situation in Libya continues to impact regional stability, reflecting significant challenges to peace efforts due to the political and military division. Furthermore, external interventions complicate the possibility of reaching a comprehensive political solution.
In conclusion, the situation in Libya remains complex and requires coordinated international and regional efforts to achieve stability, amid the absence of local will to end the presence of militias and strengthen legitimate security institutions.