Shugaban hukumar makamashi ta duniya, Fatih Birol, a wani taron manema labarai da aka gudanar a Australia, ya bayyana cewa tattalin arzikin duniya na fuskantar "babbar barazana" sakamakon ci gaba da yaki a Iran. Birol ya nuna cewa tasirin wannan yaki na iya zama mai zurfi fiye da abin da kasuwar duniya ta fuskanta a lokacin shafar man fetur na shekarun 1970 ko kuma rikicin Rasha da Ukrain.
Farashin man fetur na ci gaba da hauhawa tare da rashin alamun kawo karshen rikicin, inda farashin mai na WTI ya zarce 100 dala ga kowanne kwali, yayin da mai Brent ya wuce 113 dala ga kowanne kwali. A cikin lokaci, Israel ta kai sabon hari kan wasu wuraren a Iran, tana gargadi Tehran game da yiwuwar martani, abu wanda ke karawa yanayin tashin hankali a wannan yanki.
Details of the Event
Yayin da fargaba ke karuwa, Birol ya tabbatar da cewa fiye da 40 wuraren samar da makamashi a kasashe 9 sun gamu da asarar gaske sakamakon rikicin, wanda ke jawo barazana ga kwanciyar hankali na kasuwar makamashi ta duniya. Ya jaddada cewa yana tattaunawa da gwamnatoci a Turai da Asiya don duba yiwuwar sakin karin tanadin man da aka riga aka ajiye a kasuwanni don fuskantar karuwar farashi.
Ya kara da cewa yana da matukar muhimmanci a yi nazari kan halin da kasuwar take ciki da kuma kimanta tasirin kafin a yanke duk wata shawara game da janye daga tanadin, yana jaddada cewa dukkan zabi za su iya zama masu kyau.
Background & Context
Tarihin yaki a Iran ya dawo da gagarumin jayayya tsawon lokaci tsakanin Tehran da kasashen yamma, musamman Amurka, wanda ya karu bayan janyewar Washington daga yarjejeniyar nukiliya a shekarar 2018. A cikin shekaru masu zuwa, yankin Gabashin Tsakanin ya sha fama da rikice-rikice da dama, wanda ya jawo karuwar wahalar tattalin arziki.
Iran na ci gaba da samun iko a kan Babban Hanyoyin Harkokin Lantarki, wanda aka san shi da zama hanya mai matukar amfani wajen jigilar makamashi na duniya, inda akalla 20% na kasuwancin man fetur ke wucewa ta wannan hanya. Tehran na gargadi cewa za ta mayar da martani ga duk wani hari kan hanyoyin samar da makamashinta, lamarin da ya kara jawo rudani kuma ya jawo barazana ga wannan kasuwancin mahimman gaske.
Impact & Consequences
Daga maganganun Birol, tasirin rikicin Iran yana zama babban jigo wanda zai iya jawo tsangwama a kasuwar makamashi a fadin duniya, inda tasirin bai tsaya ga kasashen da ake fuskantar matsaloli kawai ba, har ma yana shafar dukkan kasashe a fadin duniya sakamakon hadaddiyar hanyar kasuwancin makamashi. Idan rikicin ya ci gaba, za mu iya ganin hauhawar farashin makamashi, da jin kai da gasa na sinadarin mai da gas, lamarin da zai shafi dabarun kasashe wajen bambance hanyoyin samar da makamashi.
Jigilar jawabin daga Amurka tana yi alkawarin daukar matakan tayar da hankali kan Iran, yanayin yana yi kama da jerin martani. Hakan na nuna cewa yiwuwar wani yaki mai karfi na iya zama gaskiya, wanda zai jawo mummunan juyayi tun daga wahalhalun man fetur a shekarun 1970.
Regional Significance
Babu shakka, kasashen Larabawa za su fuskanci tasirin tashin hankali a wannan yanki kai tsaye. Rikicin na ci gaba yana shafar kwanciyar hankali na kasuwar kasar Larabawa, musamman wadanda ke matukar dogaro da kudaden shigar man fetur. Duk wani canji a farashin man fetur saboda rikicin Iran na iya shafar tattalin arzikin kasashen Gulf da sauran kasashen Larabawa.
A yayin da kasashen Larabawa ke kokarin samun inganci a harkokin cikin gida da tabbatar da kwanciyar hankali na tattalin arziki, barazanar rikicin yankin na sake fitar da fargaba bisa rugujewar tsaro, haka kuma yana jaddada muhimmancin bambance hanyoyin samun kudin shiga. Duk da haka, fargabar ta ci gaba game da yadda al'umma ta duniya za ta amsa wannan babban kalubale.