Maximilianus Nico Demos, mai gudanar da bincike a kamfanin Pilaramas Investment, ya bayyana cewa tattalin arzikin Indoneziya yana da kwanciyar hankali, wanda aka samu daga amfani da cikin gida da goyon bayan kudi daga gwamnati. Ya nuna cewa canje-canje a cikin hasashen ci gaban tattalin arziki daga hukumomin duniya suna faruwa ne sakamakon abubuwan waje, kamar hauhawar farashin makamashi da rikice-rikicen siyasa na duniya.
A cikin jawabin da ya yi a Jakarta, Nico ya tabbatar da cewa hadarin da ke tattare da jinkirin ci gaban tattalin arziki ba su da zurfi, inda ya bayyana cewa amfani da cikin gida da goyon bayan kudi daga gwamnati suna da matukar muhimmanci wajen tallafawa tattalin arzikin, wanda ke nuna cewa duk wani jinkiri zai kasance mai sauki maimakon mai tsanani.
Bayani kan al'amuran da suka faru
Saboda ci gaba da tashin hankali tsakanin Amurka da Iran, Nico ya nuna cewa masu zuba jari na iya gujewa kadarorin da ke da hadari mai yawa kamar hannayen jari, duk da kasancewar wasu damammaki. Ya bayyana cewa kasuwar bashi na iya zama mai jan hankali, amma masu zuba jari suna jiran samun riba daga bashin shekaru goma da ya wuce 7%.
Hakanan, Kosviardi, mai nazarin tattalin arzikin siyasa a kasuwar hannayen jari, ya bayyana cewa halin da kasuwar ke ciki ba ya shafi kawai abubuwan yanayi na gida, har ma da tasirin da ke tasowa daga rikicin tsakanin Amurka da Iran. Ya bayyana cewa rufe tashar Hormuz daga Iran a matsayin martani ga tashin hankali tare da Amurka da Isra'ila ya shafi Indoneziya, wacce ke dogara sosai kan shigo da mai.
Asali da Mahimmanci
Tarihi, Indoneziya ta fuskanci canje-canje a tattalin arziki sakamakon abubuwan duniya, inda take dogara sosai kan fitar da kayayyakin masarufi. Tare da hauhawar farashin mai, tattalin arzikin Indoneziya na fuskantar sabbin kalubale, musamman a cikin yanayin dogaro da shigo da kayayyaki don biyan bukatun makamashi. Hakanan, kowanne karin dala guda a farashin mai na iya kara nauyi ga goyon bayan makamashi a cikin kasafin kudin gwamnati.
Rahotanni suna hasashen cewa ci gaba da hauhawar farashin mai zai haifar da karuwar gibin kasafin kudi, wanda zai iya wuce iyakar lafiya na 3% na GDP. Hakanan, masana suna gargadi game da hadarin hauhawar farashi a cikin kwata na biyu na shekarar 2026, inda ci gaban tattalin arziki ke jinkirin yayin da farashin kayayyaki ke karuwa sakamakon hauhawar farashin sufuri da makamashi.
Tasiri da Sakamako
Shawarar Bankin Indoneziya na dakatar da rage farashin ruwa a 4.75% mataki ne na kariya da aka nufa don kula da kwanciyar hankali na rupiah, amma damammakin da ke akwai don sassauta manufofin kudi sun zama iyakance. A cikin mako na farko bayan hutun Idin Fitr, motsin kasuwannin kudi a Indoneziya ya nuna canje-canje masu yawa, inda aka rufe index na farashin hannayen jari a matakin 7097.057, yayin da farashin rupiah ya tsaya a tsakanin 16850 - 16997 bisa ga dala na Amurka.
Wannan matsin lamba yana faruwa ne a cikin yanayin hauhawar farashin mai na duniya wanda ya wuce dala 100 a kowanne barrel, sakamakon rikice-rikicen a tashar Hormuz, wanda ke da matukar muhimmanci wajen samar da 20% na bukatun man fetur na duniya. Wannan yanayin yana jawo damuwa ga masu zuba jari game da dorewar ci gaban tattalin arziki a Indoneziya.
Tasirin ga Yankin Larabawa
Yankin Larabawa yana fuskantar tasiri sosai daga abubuwan da ke faruwa a tashar Hormuz, inda wannan yanki ke zama muhimmin cibiyar kasuwancin mai na duniya. Kowanne karin tashin hankali a rikicin tsakanin Amurka da Iran na iya haifar da hauhawar farashin mai, wanda zai shafi tattalin arzikin kasashe masu fitar da mai na Larabawa.
A karshe, halin tattalin arzikin Indoneziya yana cikin kulawa, inda makomarsa ke dogara da yadda gwamnati za ta amsa kalubalen duniya, tare da kwanciyar hankali na farashin makamashi. Wannan yana bukatar ingantattun dabaru don tabbatar da dorewar ci gaban tattalin arziki a cikin yanayin da ke canzawa.