Europe is experiencing a state of anxiety following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, where U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have resulted in the deaths of prominent officials, intensifying the conflict in the region. Under these circumstances, European countries are seeking alternative gas supplies, with Algeria emerging as a key option in this context.
Energy experts have reported that Algeria, already a major gas supplier to Europe, is poised to serve as a "safety valve" for the old continent. However, Algeria's ability to compensate for the shortfall in Qatari supplies remains limited, according to expert Hashim Akal.
Details of the Situation
Since February 28, the Middle East has witnessed significant escalation, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most crucial maritime routes for global energy trade. Before the conflict, approximately 135 vessels passed through the strait daily, but the situation has changed dramatically following the attacks, with over 350 ships, including oil and gas tankers, waiting for permission to transit.
This closure threatens to create a severe bottleneck in energy supplies, potentially impacting supply chains, transportation costs, and the stability of the global economy. Simultaneously, gas prices in Europe have surged by between 60% and 100%, with oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel.
Context and Background
Historically, Algeria has been one of the largest gas suppliers to Europe, and these supplies have increased significantly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting European countries to reduce their reliance on Russian gas. In 2025, Algeria supplied the European Union with between 39 and 40 billion cubic meters of gas, accounting for approximately 13-14% of total imports.
Algeria benefits from its geographical proximity to Europe, with most gas transported via pipelines, making it less susceptible to geopolitical risks compared to maritime transport.
Consequences and Impact
Reports predict that the current situation will lead to a real energy crisis in Europe during the upcoming winter, with rising electricity and gas bills and increased pressure on industries, particularly in Germany and Italy. There are also concerns that some countries may enter a state of economic recession due to these pressures.
European countries are seeking to replenish their reserves during the summer, but fierce competition from Asian markets makes this task more challenging. In this context, Italy and Spain have begun negotiating directly with Algeria to increase supplies.
Impact on the Arab Region
In these critical times, Algeria is considered a strategic partner for Europe, enhancing its role in the global energy market. However, Algeria faces challenges in increasing its production, as its facilities are operating at full capacity while domestic demand is rising by 3-4% annually.
If the current conditions persist, Algeria is expected to witness further cooperation with European countries in the fields of renewable energy and green hydrogen, reflecting the importance of the European-Algerian partnership in the future.