The American-Israeli war against Iran enters its second month amid clear discrepancies in assessments regarding its outcomes and increasing fears that the conflict may expand to encompass the entire region. This war comes at a time when Iranian attacks against targets in the Arabian Gulf region are intensifying, disregarding the sanctity of neighboring Muslim countries and the Gulf states' desire to avoid this war.
By the end of the first month of this war, the Houthi group in Sana'a has joined the confrontation after carrying out attacks targeting Israel, which enhances the likelihood of regional escalation and complicates the security landscape in the area. These events also raise concerns about disruptions to the global economy due to the difficulties in maintaining oil supplies from the Middle East.
Event Details
The Arabian Gulf region is no stranger to such global events, having witnessed three bloody wars since 1980, in addition to the current war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. These wars have marked dangerous turning points in the national security of the countries in the region, which continue to suffer from their long-term effects.
The Iran-Iraq War was the first of the previous wars in the region, lasting nearly eight grueling years, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iranian and Iraqi soldiers. The war ended without a decisive victory for either side, creating a significant rift within the Islamic nation between the Sunni and Shia worlds.
Three years after the end of the Iran-Iraq War, we witnessed the Gulf War in 1991, followed by the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, whose effects lasted for about 20 years. Iraq became a vulnerable state, having been one of the most important Arab countries in terms of military strength and armament.
Background & Context
The United States has adopted different strategies throughout these four Gulf wars. In the Iran-Iraq War, the U.S. embraced what was known as the dual containment strategy, aimed at exhausting both Iraq and Iran simultaneously to ensure that neither emerged victorious.
However, the United States has become a direct party in the last three Gulf wars under three Republican administrations. When comparing the current war against Iran to previous American military interventions, fundamental differences become evident.
Despite President George W. Bush's failure to secure a UN resolution before the invasion of Iraq in 2003, he succeeded in convincing some NATO members to send military forces. In contrast, the American-Iranian war occurs in an international context characterized by a decline in trust between the United States and its allies, leaving Washington without a clear international legal cover.
Impact & Consequences
Statements from President Donald Trump reflect his dissatisfaction with the positions of allies, accusing them of abandoning the United States. Additionally, the political objectives of the U.S. towards Iran appear unclear, further complicating the situation.
Concerns are growing that this war may be costly and unpopular, as public support for it has diminished compared to the Gulf War. Moreover, fluctuations in the American decision regarding whether to continue the war or move towards negotiations with Iran cast heavy shadows over financial markets.
Regional Significance
The Gulf strategy at this stage relies on restraint and strategic patience in the face of what the warring parties seek to draw it into. Gulf countries understand that this war is not theirs, and their supreme interest lies in ending the conflict before it is too late.
These countries adopt a cautious approach based on avoiding escalation, recognizing that involvement in the war could make them the biggest losers. In light of the above, it can be said that the current war differs in its context, tools, and challenges from previous American wars in the Gulf, whether in terms of the absence of international consensus or the complexity of the regional environment.