International relations have recently witnessed an unprecedented escalation, with the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran serving as a sign of the decline of the rules-based international order. This system, established after World War II, aimed to regulate relations between states and ensure global stability and peace. However, it appears that this order is facing significant challenges threatening its existence.
Stacy Goddard, a political science professor at Wellesley College, states, "We are at a very low point in the rules-based order." This system has been defined as a set of rules and norms intended to govern international relations, gaining renewed significance after the Cold War. The goal of this order was to create a more stable, free, and prosperous world.
Details of the Current Situation
Following the atrocities witnessed during the world wars of the 20th century, international institutions such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization were established, where member states agreed to refrain from hostilities against one another. However, many countries, particularly in the Global South, feel that these rules have not genuinely benefited them. Amitav Acharya, a professor at Washington University, points out that "the system was an exclusive club, primarily benefiting the United States and its Western allies."
Reports indicate that African nations feel disproportionately targeted by the International Criminal Court, with 47 out of 54 individuals accused so far being from the continent. This reflects a widespread sentiment of injustice in the application of international rules.
Background & Context
In the last decade, the rules-based order has seen a growing erosion of trust. For instance, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 challenged the principle of sovereignty. These events illustrate how major powers disregard the rules they themselves have set.
If the era of the rules-based order is nearing its end, what might come next? Many geopolitical scholars discuss the possibility of a return to regional hegemony, where major powers seek to divide the world into spheres of influence.
Impact & Consequences
Goddard notes that such hegemony could provoke strong reactions from sovereign states that do not understand why they have been placed in a sphere of influence. Additionally, the actions of leaders like Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump do not necessarily reflect the interests of their countries, complicating the international landscape.
On the other hand, the emergence of a multipolar system, as described by Acharya, could lead to the presence of medium and regional powers, enhancing cooperation at both global and regional levels. In this system, there would not be one or two superpowers, but a greater diversity of international actors.
Regional Significance
For the Arab world, these transformations may mean a reevaluation of relations with major powers. Arab states may seek to bolster their military and economic independence, providing them with a greater opportunity to influence international decision-making. Furthermore, cooperation between Arab nations and medium-power countries could contribute to enhancing regional stability.
In conclusion, it seems that the future of the international system faces significant challenges, and it may require countries that still believe in the values of the rules-based order to take effective steps to uphold these values in a changing world.