The Indonesian Stock Price Index (IHSG) fell by 0.44% this Thursday morning, opening down by 31.33 points to reach 7153.11 points. This decline comes as investors look forward to a speech from U.S. President Donald Trump, which is expected to address developments in the conflict between the United States and Iran.
At the same time, the index composed of 45 leading stocks (LQ45) decreased by 1.32 points, or 0.18%, reaching 725.47 points. Analysts indicate that the market's current focus is on Trump's speech, which could significantly impact market trends in the near future.
Details of the Event
According to statements from Lisa Camelia Suryanata, head of research at Qoom Securities, the market is experiencing a state of anticipation and waiting. Trump's speech is expected to serve as a catalyst for determining future market directions. Reports have shown a shift in global sentiment from escalation to de-escalation, with the United States announcing that its primary objectives regarding Iran have been achieved, opening the door for a potential resolution of the crisis in the coming weeks.
On the other hand, reports indicate that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed readiness to end the conflict, provided that Iran's rights are recognized and compensations are paid, along with international guarantees against any future aggressions.
Background & Context
Historically, U.S.-Iranian relations have seen increasing tensions, especially after the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018. Since then, the U.S. has imposed strict economic sanctions on Iran, exacerbating the situation in the region. The Gulf region, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, is a sensitive point affecting global oil prices, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes.
Currently, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping traffic, limiting oil tanker movements and affecting prices, which remain above $100 per barrel. These conditions create uncertainty in financial markets, as investors are influenced by political and economic developments in the region.
Impact & Consequences
Recent developments in U.S.-Iranian relations directly affect global financial markets, including Indonesian markets. Any escalation in tensions could lead to rising oil prices, negatively impacting the Indonesian economy, which heavily relies on energy imports. Additionally, instability in the region may lead to fluctuations in financial markets, causing anxiety among investors.
Furthermore, local economic data indicates that Indonesia achieved a trade surplus of $1.28 billion in February 2026, although export growth has slowed. Inflation rates have shown a notable decline, reflecting relative stability in the local economy despite external pressures.
Regional Significance
Developments in U.S.-Iranian relations are particularly significant for Arab countries, as any escalation in the conflict could impact security and stability in the region. Rising oil prices due to tensions may also affect the economies of Arab states that heavily depend on oil revenues.
In conclusion, the situation in the region remains complex, requiring Arab countries to closely monitor developments and prepare to address any changes that may arise in the regional landscape.