The fuel crisis in Iran is escalating, as Miad Maleki, a former official in the U.S. sanctions engineering team, revealed that the country is experiencing a daily gasoline deficit of 77 million liters. These figures emerge at a time when Iran is under increasing economic pressure due to sanctions and blockades.
Maleki pointed out that "oil and gasoline do not negotiate," explaining that the numbers reflect the fragility of the situation more than the official statements from Tehran suggest. In an analysis published on the platform "X", he compared the Iranian regime's behavior to a stalling tactic, which is now facing physical limits concerning storage capacities and the ability to secure fuel.
Details of the Crisis
Iran has entered a phase of blockade, currently holding around 15 million barrels of oil stored on Kharg Island, which equates to 51% of its storage capacity. If production continues at the current level of 1.9 million barrels per day, it is expected that the tanks will be completely filled within just eight days. Even if production is reduced to a minimum, storage capacities will reach their maximum within 20 days, indicating that continued sanctions beyond that point will lead to the shutdown of wells.
Maleki noted that the real pressure does not only come from crude oil but also from the local fuel market, where Iran produces about 120 million liters of gasoline daily, while normal consumption is around 134 million liters, resulting in a structural daily deficit of 14 million liters. Under current conditions, daily consumption has surged to 197 million liters, increasing the deficit to 77 million liters per day.
Background & Context
This deficit has been covered through imports, costing up to 340,000 Iranian rials per liter, while gasoline is sold locally for only about 15,000 rials. This situation imposes a heavy financial burden on the Iranian government, especially with the exchange rate of the dollar nearing 1.5 million rials.
Iran's strategic reserves are estimated at about 1.56 billion liters of gasoline and 1.28 billion liters of diesel, sufficient to cover 12 days of national supplies. In the event of a partial loss of refining capacity with the cessation of imports, the daily deficit could reach 47 million liters, leading to the depletion of reserves within 33 days.
Impact & Consequences
The most critical phase precedes the complete depletion of reserves, as signs of acute shortages begin to manifest, such as the closure of gas stations and rising prices in the black market, occurring during days 15 and 18 of the crisis. This situation is likely to create increasing social and security pressures.
Maleki added that any regime, no matter how much it talks about "enhancing internal cohesion," cannot do without fuel to mobilize troops and transport food. "The hour of gasoline is the real negotiating table," he stated.
Regional Significance
The fuel crisis in Iran serves as an indicator of the economic challenges facing oil-exporting countries in the region. This crisis could impact global oil prices and increase pressures on neighboring countries that rely on importing Iranian oil.
In conclusion, this crisis reflects the critical economic situation in Iran, which may lead to widespread political and social repercussions.