In striking remarks, Sir Alex Younger, the former head of the British intelligence agency MI6, confirmed that Iran has managed to gain a significant advantage in its conflict with the United States and Israel. In an interview with "The Economist," Younger explained that the United States has misjudged the mission and has lost the initiative to Iran for about two weeks now.
Younger noted that the Iranian regime has shown greater resilience than expected, having made strategic decisions since last June regarding the distribution of its military capabilities and delegating authority to use those weapons, which has granted them additional flexibility in the face of the intense air campaign they are subjected to.
Details of the Conflict
The war between the United States and Israel against Iran began on February 28, when American and Israeli airstrikes targeted sites in Iran, resulting in the deaths of several prominent Iranian officials, including former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and former security chief Ali Larijani. However, Iran retaliated by launching attacks on Gulf countries hosting American military bases and continued to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital point through which 20% of the world's oil passes.
At the same time, some members of the U.S. Senate indicated that President Donald Trump's administration lacks a clear war plan, and that regime change in Iran is not one of its objectives, while Iran is not on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, which was one of the justifications Trump provided for initiating the attacks.
Background & Context
Historically, relations between Iran and the United States have been marked by severe tensions since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, which led to the severance of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Since then, the United States has sought to curb Iran's influence in the region, especially after the nuclear agreement reached in 2015, from which the United States withdrew in 2018. This withdrawal led to a resurgence of tensions, making the region susceptible to further conflicts.
Today, Iran is considered a key player in the Middle East, possessing extensive influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, which complicates the ongoing conflict. Thanks to its well-thought-out military strategy, Iran has managed to withstand military and political pressures.
Impact & Consequences
Younger’s statements suggest that Iran has successfully implemented a strategy of "horizontal escalation," having launched missiles at Gulf states, thereby increasing pressure on the United States. Iran has recognized the importance of economic warfare by threatening the Strait of Hormuz, which has allowed it to play a strong card in the conflict.
Younger also pointed out that control over the Strait of Hormuz has granted Iran the "upper hand" in the war, enabling it to influence global energy markets. This dynamic could exacerbate economic crises in oil-dependent countries, negatively impacting regional stability.
Regional Significance
These events directly affect Arab countries, especially those with close ties to the United States. The escalating conflict between Iran and the United States could lead to increased tensions in the region, threatening the security and stability of Gulf states. Moreover, the rising violence in Iran could result in severe humanitarian repercussions, with reports indicating that the death toll from recent popular protests has exceeded 7,000 people.
In conclusion, it appears that the conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel has entered a new phase of complexity, with Iran emerging as a key player in the region, necessitating Arab countries to adopt strategic positions to face future challenges.