Recent leaks attributed to the UN-sponsored 'Structured Dialogue' in Libya have revived fears of a new slide towards an extension of the transitional phase that the country has been enduring since 2011. The proposed suggestions include the formation of a new transitional authority, which many Libyans view as a reproduction of the crisis rather than a solution.
The proposed draft includes the establishment of a new authority comprising a head of state and a deputy, taking into account the geographical balance among the three regions: Benghazi, Tripoli, and Fezzan. It also suggests that elections be held under a 'unified list' system through UN dialogue, requiring the endorsement of 25% of the dialogue members. The term is set for 36 months and is non-renewable, with limited financial guarantees and an increase in international recognition after the term ends.
Details of the Event
Some members of the 'Structured Dialogue', such as Asaad Zahio, have rushed to clarify that the proposal is merely a concept outside the official framework and does not reflect the ongoing dialogue. However, the mere circulation of these proposals has raised widespread concern among the Libyan public, who are suffering from political and popular exhaustion due to successive transitional paths that have failed to achieve stability or organize decisive elections.
In this context, Mohamed Al-Asadi, spokesperson for the UN mission, described the roadmap proposed by UN envoy Hanna Titi as a practical initiative aimed at ending the transitional phases that the country has been experiencing since 2011, paving the way for fair and transparent general elections.
Background & Context
It is worth noting that the structured dialogue, which is set to resume its sessions this April, is part of Titi's roadmap that also includes amending electoral laws and filling vacancies in the electoral commission, in addition to forming a unified government. Nevertheless, discussions about transitional phases highlight a gap between the aspirations of the Libyan street to end the temporary phase and a political reality still shackled by internal balances and international tug-of-war.
Member of the High State Council, Abu Qasim Qzeit, believes that the country is still 'far from overcoming the transitional phases', pointing to rising fears of entrenching corruption and reproducing authoritarian governance patterns within institutions that are supposed to be permanent in the future.
Impact & Consequences
Official movements continue to emphasize the commitment to ending the transitional phase, as discussions between Mohamed Al-Menfi, head of the Presidential Council, and Mohamed Takala, head of the High State Council, focused on practical steps to prepare the conditions for conducting national elections. Local officials and social leaders in the Western Mountain region have also expressed their support for efforts aimed at ending the temporary phases.
However, research estimates indicate a state of 'general fatigue' from the successive transitional paths. The country is experiencing political exhaustion and security and military division, which has directly impacted living conditions, including inflation, liquidity shortages, and declining services. Sanusi Basykri, director of the 'Libyan Center for Research and Development', noted that these crises are exacerbated by high levels of corruption.
Regional Significance
These developments in Libya are particularly significant for the Arab region, reflecting the challenges faced by countries in achieving political stability. The ongoing state of political and administrative division in Libya could affect regional security and exacerbate the chaos experienced by some neighboring countries.
In conclusion, Libya's future remains suspended between the aspirations of the people for stability and the complex political reality that hinders reaching radical solutions. Continued dialogue and negotiations may be the only way to avoid further deterioration, but this requires genuine political will from all concerned parties.