The gap between Libyan factions regarding the political crisis is widening, as Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh implicitly rejected a new American initiative, reflecting deep divisions in the political landscape.
These statements from Dbeibeh came mid-week, where he insisted on the necessity of completing the constitution first and rejected military rule, while efforts by the UN mission to resolve the crisis continue. Observers consider Dbeibeh's stance a maneuver to contain popular discontent in the western region against imposed external solutions.
Details of the Event
Opinions vary between Dbeibeh, Presidential Council head Mohamed Menfi, and Supreme State Council head Mohamed Takala, who expressed reservations about the American initiative, in addition to the UN path represented by the 4+4 Committee. The country has been politically divided for years, with two competing governments: one led by Dbeibeh in Tripoli, and the other appointed by the parliament led by Osama Hamad in the east, supported by National Army commander Khalifa Haftar.
In this context, Supreme State Council member Mohamed Mazab clarified that the council is not in alliance with the unity government, but rather there is a necessary coordination between the executive authority and the advisory council. Despite limited tension between Takala and Dbeibeh, communication between them remains ongoing.
Background & Context
Pressure on Dbeibeh is increasing with growing talk about the American initiative, which stipulates that Saddam Haftar, deputy commander of the national army, would assume the presidency of a new presidential council instead of Menfi, while keeping Dbeibeh in his position. Mazab indicates that the council's opposition to current paths, especially the 4+4 Committee, arises from their bypassing of constitutional frameworks.
On the other hand, the director of the Sadiq Center for Studies believes that Dbeibeh initially relied on the support of armed groups in the capital, but later realized that this would not achieve his desired goals. Additionally, many components of the city of Misrata expressed their rejection of the initiative, prompting Dbeibeh to announce his opposing stance.
Impact & Consequences
Political analyst Saleh Al-Bakoush believes that the tension between Dbeibeh and Menfi will not significantly affect Dbeibeh due to Menfi's limited presence in the street. He notes that there are deeper understandings between Dbeibeh and the Supreme State Council, which may facilitate the containment of tensions between them.
If American pressure to implement the initiative continues, Dbeibeh may rely on a popular stance rejecting it. Furthermore, the UN mission is nearing gradual achievements, as negotiations are being confined to a narrow circle of actors away from the complexities of the House of Representatives and the Supreme State Council.
Regional Significance
The Libyan crisis is considered one of the complex crises in the region, affecting stability in North Africa. The continuation of political division may exacerbate humanitarian and economic conditions in the country, negatively impacting the regional neighborhood.
In conclusion, the political scene in Libya remains complex, with clear disparities among the different parties, necessitating intensified efforts from the international community to resolve the crisis and achieve stability.