A new study conducted by researchers at the University of Toronto has shown a 42% decrease in the number of Canadians visiting major cities in the United States, which is a much larger decline than the official data indicating a 25% drop. These findings reflect Canadians' hesitance to travel to American cities during Trump's second administration.
This study relates to a new tool that tracks mobile phone activity, revealing that Canadians are increasingly avoiding travel to the United States, particularly given the current political climate. Researchers noted that this decline significantly affects local economies in American border cities that rely on Canadian tourism.
Details of the Study
The data indicates that American cities such as New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont have experienced a notable decrease in Canadian visitors. This decline also encompasses major tourist destinations like Las Vegas and Walt Disney World, as well as winter recreational areas in Florida, which were previously favored by Canadians during the winter months.
Researchers analyzed mobile phone data from Canadians who traveled to American cities between April 1, 2024 and March 31, 2026. They mentioned that the data might also include shipping movements, which could explain the gap between border crossing estimates and actual data.
Background & Context
Historically, relations between Canada and the United States have been strong, with active trade and tourism flows between the two countries. However, as political tensions have escalated, particularly following Trump's imposition of tariffs on certain Canadian goods, these relations have begun to suffer. Researchers pointed out that the decline in visits to Grand Rapids, Michigan, which is closely linked to the automotive industry in Ontario, reflects this downturn.
Furthermore, data showed that the number of trips taken by Canadians to the United States fell by 25% in 2025, while trips from the United States to Canada decreased by 7.5%.
Impact & Consequences
This decline in tourism between Canada and the United States signals changes in travel preferences due to economic uncertainty. Researchers indicated that major economic centers such as San Francisco and Houston have witnessed a decrease not only in tourism but also in business-related travel, reflecting broader impacts on both economies.
The economic ramifications of this decline could be profound, as many American border cities depend on Canadian tourism to support their local economies. With increasing travel restrictions, these cities may face greater challenges in attracting visitors.
Regional Significance
The implications of this study extend beyond mere statistics; they highlight a shift in the dynamics of cross-border travel and its economic significance. The reduction in Canadian visits to US cities could lead to long-term changes in how these regions interact economically and socially.
In conclusion, the findings of this study underscore the need for both countries to address the underlying issues affecting tourism and to foster stronger ties that can benefit local economies on both sides of the border.