Water and energy facilities in the Gulf region, including desalination plants, are facing heightened threats due to Iranian attacks that go beyond conventional targets. Nevertheless, the desalination system in the Gulf is designed to absorb isolated disruptions without immediately affecting water supplies.
Rabih Rostom, a professor of water and environmental engineering at Heriot-Watt University in Dubai, emphasizes that "the desalination system in the Gulf has enough breathing room, so the loss of one plant does not lead to an immediate supply disruption." However, ongoing or multiple-location attacks could begin to exert pressure on supplies more rapidly.
Details of the Incident
In Kuwait, Iranian drone attacks have destroyed two energy and desalination facilities, in addition to igniting fires at two oil sites. Other locations, such as Fujairah in the UAE, have also been identified as potential targets. Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, notes that "targeting desalination plants would be a strategic move, but it would come close to crossing a red line."
The water infrastructure occupies a unique category, as it is not just another facility but supports civilian survival, public health, and hospital functions. Krieg adds that international humanitarian law provides special protection for civilian targets and essential items for the survival of civilian populations, making attacks on water systems carry significant legal and ethical weight.
Background & Context
Desalination is central to water supplies in the Gulf, where countries rely on a network of desalination plants along their coasts to convert seawater into potable water. The region heavily depends on these plants, producing about 40% of the world's desalinated water, with over 400 plants in operation.
The reliance on desalination varies from country to country, with desalination accounting for approximately 90% of drinking water in Kuwait, around 70% in Saudi Arabia, and 41-42% in the UAE. This high dependency means that any disruption in the system directly impacts the daily lives of the population.
Impact & Consequences
If a disruption occurs in the desalination system, residents may not feel the change immediately, as water continues to flow thanks to internal storage systems in buildings. However, larger impacts will emerge if multiple parts of the system are affected simultaneously, leading to greater supply challenges.
These systems are inflexible, designed to operate continuously to meet the needs of cities, industrial activity, and essential services. Rostom points out that "cities rely on continuous production from desalination, but this does not mean they operate without support," referring to strategic reserves and groundwater recharge.
Regional Significance
These events serve as a reminder of the fragility of water infrastructure in the Gulf region, where any escalation in conflict can lead to negative effects on daily life and the economy. Targeting water systems is not merely a military act but a threat to food, health, and social security.
In conclusion, desalination systems in the Gulf remain a strategic vulnerability, requiring special protection to ensure the continuity of daily life for residents. Maintaining these systems is vital to ensuring the sustainability of Gulf communities in the face of increasing challenges.