The British newspaper The Guardian has indicated that the military escalation led by the United States and Israel against Iran could lead to unexpected outcomes, potentially prompting Tehran to make a decisive move toward developing nuclear weapons as a means of ensuring its survival. Commentator Simon Tisdall wrote that war could strengthen Iran's conviction that nuclear deterrence is the only available option for protecting itself.
Tisdall criticized the justifications provided by the administration of former President Donald Trump for waging war, pointing out that the claim that Iran poses an imminent threat due to its nuclear ambitions is a flawed justification. He emphasized that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, while both the United States and Israel do.
Details of the Situation
In the context of the ongoing conflict, Tisdall noted that every bomb dropped and every threat of annihilation increases Iran's motivation to reject diplomacy, leading it instead to seek nuclear weapons for self-defense. Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders view nuclear weapons as the only reliable means to deter any future attacks.
The writer also mentioned that the United States and Israel have launched attacks on Iran twice in 2025 and 2026 without warning, which has eroded trust in any future diplomatic settlement. Even if Trump were to propose what he calls a "great deal," many Iranians do not trust him, thereby enhancing the credibility of nuclear deterrence compared to diplomatic guarantees.
Background & Context
Tisdall also criticized Trump's strategy of attempting to "wipe out" Iran's nuclear program by force, noting that scientific knowledge cannot be easily destroyed. Iran still possesses local expertise and may be able to acquire nuclear technology from allies such as North Korea or Russia.
The writer placed Iran in a broader historical context, where countries like Iraq and Ukraine have faced attacks from larger powers. Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal in 1994 in exchange for Western security guarantees, but those guarantees proved worthless when it was invaded by Russia. Meanwhile, Iraq, which lacked a nuclear deterrent, was invaded by the United States in 2003, reinforcing the belief that nuclear weapons are the only means to protect sovereignty.
Impact & Consequences
Tisdall also criticized the hypocrisy of major nuclear powers within the framework of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, where non-nuclear states are asked to refrain from arming themselves while nuclear powers continue to modernize their arsenals. He noted that Trump's withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018 was a "foolish decision" that contributed to the current crisis.
Tisdall's warning extends beyond Iran; if Tehran decides to pursue a nuclear bomb, it may be followed by regional countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey. Other nations like Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea may reach the same conclusion.
Regional Significance
If aggression from nuclear powers continues, the world may revert to the nightmare of a Cold War characterized by mutually assured destruction. For Tisdall, the lesson is clear: diplomacy and enforceable international law are the only ways to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, while war makes possessing the bomb a rational and justified choice.
In conclusion, the military escalation against Iran could lead to counterproductive results, highlighting the urgent need to consider effective diplomatic solutions to avoid exacerbating the situation in the region.