The Israeli army announced today, Thursday, the assassination of Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's navy, who played a prominent role in disrupting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing war. Although this event may seem like a strategic move, analysts believe its impact on the course of the war will be limited.
According to Dr. Alam Saleh, a professor of Iranian studies at an Australian university, the assassination policy followed by the United States and Israel will not compel Iranians to change their policies in the short or long term. Instead, it may lead to chaos within the regime, where new, more hardline leaders may emerge.
Details of the Event
Tangsiri, considered one of the prominent military leaders in Iran, has joined a long list of leaders who have been assassinated in recent years. However, Saleh believes that his absence will not significantly affect the course of the war, as Iran has become accustomed to dealing with such challenges. He points out that the assassinations of leaders over the past decade have not altered Iran's long-term policies.
On the other hand, Tim Constantino, editor-in-chief of the Washington Times, expresses concern that repeated assassinations could lead to chaos within the Iranian regime, as new leaders may struggle to manage affairs efficiently under current circumstances. He emphasizes that every new leader requires a period to adapt to their responsibilities, which could lead to dysfunction within the system.
Background & Context
Historically, Iran has witnessed numerous assassinations targeting its military leaders, but these operations have not significantly impacted its strategies. On the contrary, Iran continually seeks to bolster its military and economic capabilities, especially in light of global economic crises. Saleh argues that economic victories will determine the outcome of the war, not assassinations.
Currently, Iran aims to raise oil prices to $130 per barrel, which could lead to a global economic crisis. In this context, Saleh believes that controlling the Strait of Hormuz is more crucial than controlling airspace, as Iran determines who crosses and who does not.
Impact & Consequences
Although Tangsiri's assassination may appear to be a positive step for the United States and Israel, analysts believe this could lead to increased tensions in the region. Rising oil prices may mean further hostilities towards Iran, which could adversely affect the Iranian people suffering from the war's repercussions.
Moreover, assassinations do not create strategic victories; they may merely represent media victories. Saleh points out that true victory depends on the economy, not on eliminating leaders. Consequently, current events may escalate tensions in the region, especially with over 100 countries supporting UN Security Council resolutions against Iran.
Regional Significance
The Arab region is significantly affected by these events, as any escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel could lead to negative repercussions for neighboring countries. For instance, closing the Strait of Hormuz could impact global trade flows, adversely affecting the Arab economy.
In conclusion, the question remains about how these events will influence the future of the war in the region. While Israel seeks to enhance its military gains, Iran remains determined to maintain its economic and military strategy, potentially leading to ongoing escalation in the conflict.